Montreal Real Estate: Economist’s Calm View (With a Front‑Row Seat in the Best Neighbourhoods)

BY BRIDGE HENNESSEY

Montreal’s housing market in 2026 is shaping up to be quietly interesting: not a boom, not a crash, but a slow, calculated re‑awakening. Economists and major brokerages alike see a year where serious buyers come back, prices edge up modestly, and the best neighbourhoods keep seeing solid, selective transactions.​

Against this backdrop, big players like RE/MAX in Greater Montreal, Sotheby’s International Realty Québec, and Engel & Völkers are all telling their clients a similar story in different tones: the frenzy is gone, but opportunity is very much alive if you know where to look.​

The 2026 Backdrop: Rates Down, Discipline Up

By 2026, the harshest phase of high interest rates is behind us. Forecasts suggest the Bank of Canada’s policy rate will be lower than its 2023–2024 peak, easing pressure on new borrowers and renewals, even if money never becomes as cheap as it was in 2020–2021. Mortgage rate projections point to five‑year fixed rates that feel “normal but serious”: high enough to enforce discipline, low enough to let the market breathe.​

This is exactly the environment where brands like RE/MAX highlight the need for realistic pricing and solid preparation, while Sotheby’s and Engel & Völkers focus on long‑term positioning of quality assets in prime locations rather than short‑term speculation.​

Demand: Buyers Return to the Table (Carefully)

National and provincial outlooks for 2026 call for a rebound in home sales after a softer 2025, with Quebec and Montreal participating in that recovery. Buyers are returning, but with a more analytical mindset: they are comparing neighbourhoods, testing their budgets against different rate scenarios, and negotiating more firmly than during the pandemic boom.​

In Montreal, three buyer groups stand out:

• Families targeting established areas such as Outremont, Notre‑Dame‑de‑Grâce (NDG), and parts of the West Island, where good schools and transit keep demand resilient.

• Young professionals looking at Le Plateau, Rosemont–La Petite‑Patrie, and Griffintown, balancing lifestyle with condo pricing and commute.

• Affluent local and international buyers, often working with Sotheby’s or Engel & Völkers, circulating through Westmount, Downtown’s higher‑end condos, and select pockets of Ville‑Marie and Old Montreal.​

This is not “everyone buying everything.” It is targeted demand, flowing into specific streets and buildings that justify their price.

Supply: More Listings, Still Selective

Forecasts for Montreal show more listings and slightly higher inventory than during the ultra‑tight years, but not enough to trigger a flood or a deep correction. Builders have slowed some projects, yet steady completions, especially in urban condo and rental developments, add just enough supply to give buyers more choice.​

RE/MAX teams tend to lean into this narrative by emphasizing that sellers must price correctly to stand out in a more balanced environment. Luxury‑oriented shops like Sotheby’s and Engel & Völkers focus instead on curation: they highlight architecture, design, and lifestyle to differentiate a Westmount mansion or a high‑floor downtown condo from the growing competition.​

Prices: Gentle Moves, Not Big Swings

Most credible forecasts see Montreal prices in 2026 edging ahead in low single digits, roughly in line with income growth, not racing away from fundamentals. The city remains more affordable than Toronto and Vancouver, giving it a relative value advantage that economists and global brands both like to emphasize.​

In practice, that means:

• Solid, well‑located single‑family homes in NDG, Outremont, Rosemont, and parts of the South Shore are likely to see modest price growth and steady demand.

• High‑quality luxury properties in Westmount, Hampstead, or Old Montreal, often in the portfolios of Sotheby’s and Engel & Völkers, remain insulated by limited supply and international interest, though buyers negotiate harder on anything that looks mispriced.​

• Smaller investor‑oriented condos in oversupplied pockets of downtown and Griffintown may trade more sideways, with pricing highly sensitive to rent levels, fees, and exact building reputation.​

Neighbourhoods to Watch in 2026

Economists tend to talk in averages, but your decisions live at the neighbourhood and building level. For 2026, several Montreal areas stand out:

• Westmount & Golden Square Mile: High‑end transactions continue, driven by wealth preservation and lifestyle buyers; listing times can be longer, but negotiated deals often happen quietly.​

• Le Plateau & Mile‑End: Character properties and well‑renovated plexes still attract strong interest from both owner‑occupiers and investors, provided income and condition justify the price.

• Griffintown & Downtown condo belt: Active but more price‑sensitive; inventory levels and rentability matter a lot, and this is where RE/MAX, Engel & Völkers, and others often stress building‑by‑building analysis rather than broad generalizations.​

• NDG, Rosemont, Villeray: Mid‑market, family‑friendly, with ongoing move‑up activity; pricing is anchored by local incomes and quality of life, making these areas key barometers of “real economy” demand.​

These are the neighbourhoods where you are most likely to see consistent sold signs, not because of hype, but because the fundamentals line up.

Mortgage Renewals and Investors: Quiet but Powerful Forces

Even with easing rates, many homeowners renewing in 2026 will still face higher payments than in their previous ultra‑low‑rate terms, something Bank of Canada research has already highlighted as a risk point. For Montreal, this means some owners will adjust expectations—either holding off on upgrading, or accepting more realistic sale prices sooner.​

Investors in particular need to underwrite more conservatively. For small condos and duplexes, cash flow at current rents and interest rates matters more than hopes for fast appreciation, a reality that both economist forecasts and on‑the‑ground broker commentary are converging on. Global‑brand brokerages are increasingly framing Montreal as a long‑term hold market rather than a quick‑flip playground.​

What This All Means for You

Put simply, 2026 in Montreal is a market for thoughtful players:

• If you are buying, you gain time and negotiation power, especially outside the most in‑demand micro‑neighbourhoods.

• If you are selling, your pricing strategy, presentation, and broker choice matter more than ever, whether that is a high‑touch luxury approach or a data‑driven mass‑market plan.

• If you are investing, you win by focusing on neighbourhood fundamentals, realistic rent assumptions, and financing resilience.

Economists see stability with pockets of strength; big brands like RE/MAX, Sotheby’s International Realty Québec, and Engel & Völkers see opportunity segmented by price point and lifestyle. Put together, the message is clear: 2026 won’t reward panic or FOMO, but it will reward good homework and clear strategy.​